He who studies history shall know the future for all things come full circle.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

A New Middle East Order

Ever since the Turkish Aid Flotilla violated Israeli waters and was boarded by Israeli forces against the apparent wishes of the United Nations and the Obama Administration in the United States, it appears that Turkey once again has made itself felt not only in the Mediterranean world and in the Middle East but on the world stage with long term negative consequences to the detriment of the Atlantic Alliance. I believe a new order is arising in the Middle East that will affect the current strategic balance in favor of Russia and leave the West in an inferior geopolitical position. Behold, a new Axis of Evil - Russia, Turkey and Iran.

If you have followed my blog for the past several years, you will know that I have never accepted that Turkey would be admitted into the European Union. There are just too many factors that mitigate against a Turkish accession into what is largely a Christian/Secular/Traditional/Progressive Europe which Ataturk's Turkey possesses none of the European "virtues" that other European nations have as far as Brussels is concerned. I know that Ankara would beg to differ but alas we see in Europe a rise against all things Moslem and ultimately Turkish in the rejection of the Hijab (France), rejection of minarets (Switzerland), limits on Moslem immigration (Netherlands), demands that Turkish immigrants to Germany disavow their language and customs to be more like Germans and many more minor issues that have arisen to challenge the Moslem Turkish inclusion into the European Union. Then there is the touchy subject of the Armenian Holocaust that Turkey disavows at every opportunity to the point of breaking off diplomatic relations by Ankara against any nation from Sweden to the USA that might support the Armenian Diaspora albeit a century too late that there is simply no bridging the gap for the Turks to entwine themselves into Western Europe. And I believe the Turks know this. And I respect their position in this matter. Let us therefore come to terms with the reality that Turkey is no longer an ally of the West and the next logical step is their "ex-communication" from NATO.

When the United States was attacked on 9/11 by Moslem Terrorists she initiated a clause in the NATO Treaty that called for the defense of the United States by all partners within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Whatever each government could provide for the defense of another alliance member whether military, economic, police, legal or other services would be and was greatly welcomed by the United States against her enemies. NATO was on board against the Pakistani supported Taliban in Kabul late in 2001 but hesitated when the United States trained their eyes on Saddam Hussein and Iraq. Yes, the French were against an Iraqi invasion but nevertheless continued supporting us by other means. Ankara however, completely threw sand into our faces when as a NATO ally refused to support operations into Iraq on the eve of invasion and deliberately obstructed our military operations specifically the US Fourth Infantry Division from invading from the North of Iraq into Baghdad from Turkey in 2003. The US Fourth Division had to instead load up all their material on ships and move out of Turkish territory and invade Iraq from Kuwait. By then the US Fourth Infantry's services were too late to deliver the necessary force to Saddam's retreating army in the North and I believe allowed the Saddam Hussein regime to move out their WMD program lock, stock and barrel to either Iran or Syria through a northern route unmolested by the US Army. Saddam had a history of moving his military assets to Iran (Gulf War) and burying military assets literally in the desert sand. Since then relations between the US and Turkey have been strained to say the least and Ankara's devotion to NATO has been degraded as a result.

Israel too has been harmed by Turkey's ascent of Erdogan's political party (AKP) in the past ten years that what was once a rock solid relationship between Jerusalem and Ankara from a previous un-moslem Turkish regime has now been reduced to a failed and miserable marriage in which divorce is surely in the future for this very delicate relationship in the Middle East. The latest outrage coming from Ankara was the Hamas relief flotilla that has sealed the breakup of the Israeli/Turkish alliance contrary to whatever the Turkish government may say. Then there is the detente between Damascus and Ankara that can only serve Syrian interests at the expense of Israel by Turkey. Hezbollah is a Moslem Terrorist organization based in Lebanon and supported by Syria and Iran. Turkey's friendly overtures to Syria can only to serve to aggravate Jerusalem and ultimately Washington with the potential of another supporter of Hezbollah and Syria against Israel.

The rupturing of the EU accession, the eleventh hour sabotage of the American invasion of Iraq by a NATO ally the magnitude of which has never occurred in the annals of NATO, the up and coming divorce between Ankara and Jerusalem by political provocations in support of Iranian backed terrorist groups and a new Syrian-Turkish alliance against Israel can only mean one thing - Turkey has fallen away and will never return to the West. Where does she go from here? Does she go it "alone"? Or is there another house that she can move into that would lay out a red carpet for her? Enter Russia.

I used to think that Turkey would never countenance a Russian on their soil due to the long, long, long history of conflict between these two nations. But time does indeed heal and opportunities arise that force itself to the front without having to consider past ignominies and allow an opportunity to pass without the proper forbearance to embrace such a great prize. In other words, never let a crisis go to waste! In this case, Ankara's pariah status in the West. Turkey has gone rogue but she is not alone.

Russia has now offered Turkey Moscow's nuclear blessings. The Russians have agreed to build a nuclear facility within Turkey and this is but the beginning of Russia's deeper involvement with Ankara. It was Russia's involvement with Iran also that began with a nuclear reactor and facilities. It seems when Russia offers its nuclear know-how to the nations of the world those very nations seem intent on being the enemies of the United States and ultimately of the West. Even far off Brazil has been offered nuclear know-how by the Russians. Just recently, Turkey hosted a security summit between Russia, Iran and herself that bodes ill for the West.

If a new politico-military triangulation is slowly forming before our eyes with the advent of a Russian-Turkish-Iranian alliance then we can see how they would be a force credible and dangerous enough to bring not only Europe to its knees - the oil and gas control from its sources (Iran) as well as its transit points(Turkey) - but would also constrain the USA from attacking a Russian-backed satellite country(s) as she has in the past (Cuba, North Korea, Vietnam) for the stakes would be too high to embroil the West in another war with Russia. The West in general would be hard pressed to do anything "provocative" that would get the spigots turned off to vital energy supplies if Russia decided to become a bigger player in world affairs than she has been since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

Finally, the last variable in this elixir of potential trouble would be the Sunni Moslems positioned south of Israel from Saudi Arabia to Egypt and to the Maghreb (Moslem North Africa) that would find themselves stuck between a decadent West as they see it and a pagan triad of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian Alliance. The Sunni Moslems consider Shiite Iran as heretics. No doubt they consider the Turks, their historical Ottoman oppressors, a heretic of sorts by rejecting the Caliphate based in Istanbul after WWI and replacing their first love of Muhammed with the worship of a false god in the man Ataturk. Then of course, there is Mother Russia which is the greatest enemy that Moslems have fought since the Mongol Hordes descended upon the Middle East nearly 700 years ago. Osama Bin Ladin cut his teeth fighting the Russians in Afghanistan and nearly all of the troubles that Moscow finds herself in regarding "Moslem Separatists and Terrorists" are Sunni in religious outlook. I suspect that the Sunni Moslems are finding themselves more and more on the defensive especially after the United States destroyed Saddam Hussein's Sunni supported Iraqi regime.

Three great powers therefore are vying for control of the greater Middle East- the North(Russia-Turkey-Iran), the West (America - EU) and the South (Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Maghreb) with little tiny Israel as the fulcrum that balances these would be power blocs against each other at any one time. Israel recently was accepted into the European based OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) much to the consternation of the HAMAS and FATAH led Palestinians thus cementing Israel's position within the political/economic/military sphere of the West more and more. Turkey's falling away is clearly the greatest debacle to face the West since Germany was united under Bismark in 1870. Turkey could become Russia's greatest foreign policy coup since Stalin signed the non-aggression pact with Hitler on the eve of WWII giving the green light for Germany to invade Poland and ushering in the greatest war the world ever saw up to that point and to this day.

Behold! The future.


Blogger Ralph Dauneg said...

Iraq war was a deplorable mistake. Sorry for all the dead soldiers and civilians, the price for democracy is too high, and there is still no democracy there. Yet I am glad to know Saddam is no more the ruler of the country.

7:16 AM  

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