The Wild, Wild East
Afghanistan is apparently on the front burner of leftwing politics judging by the networks and newspaper coverage of this rather unknown and benign "war" in the eastern most part of the Middle East. As you very well know, Afghanistan was the first country we attacked after that vicious and unprovoked attack on New York City and Pentagon by Islamic Terrorists in the service of their Al Qaida masters on September 11th, 2001. As you also already know, terrorism operates chiefly unmolested by Islamic states in the Middle East and in most cases is clandestinely funded by Islamic states for the furtherance of their own national objectives such as Pakistan in Afghanistan and Syria & Iran in Iraq.
Terrorists are the pawns of nations in this part of the world with Islam being the fuel that burns the fires of terrorism. Both terrorist and Middle Eastern nation are using each other to achieve their objective(s) and as try as we might the West is unable to break this "cycle of violence" that is the hallmark of the Middle East. The Middle East really is at a breaking point in terms of Islamic culture and really we could say that the entire world is at a breaking point due to the advance of the West in terms of its economic, political, cultural and military clout that it imposes both passively and aggressively upon the nations of the world. The Middle East is feeling the vice being squeezed upon them and there simply is no way out other than through the tried and true method of political violence.
Oil has made the Middle East wealthy beyond its dreams but it also is a curse. Collectively, the Middle East has a GDP equivalent to that of Spain and we know how pathetic Spain is to the world today. The Middle East is the proverbial sick man of the world. Oil has made it possible for the Middle East to exercise some room for movement on the geopolitical plane however time is running out for them. The Middle East nations understand that the world is being sown together in a patchwork of nationalist entities to form a unified global government with the West as the cockpit of this international entity. The terrorist and the Middle East nations see the ever encroaching power of the West hence their predisposition to terrorism to effect an outcome that either will preserve them in the Middle East or allow them to separate altogether (they will still sell oil to us) from this new global hegemony. The income from oil keeps the nations of the Middle East in power and the fanaticism of religion fuels the Islamic terrorist that keeps him going in the face of an obstinate Middle Eastern dictator that runs these nations. Oil and religious fanaticism is a deadly concoction that prevents a stable Middle East from overcoming their "cycle of violence" amongst each other and of course with their neighbors.
Now, Afghanistan is before us. What shall we do and why? The networks and newspapers keep on calling our occupation of this nation as well as Iraq a "war". Just because our military is being utilized to occupy a piece of territory doesn't necessarily mean we are "at war". Yes, we do sustain casualties here and there with Islamic rebels occasionally planting an IED in the pathway of our patrols. Yes, we do get into "gunfights" with them but this is in no way similar to a "war" in which millions of rounds of ammo, millions of gallons of fuel, tons of supplies being shipped to the front and military objectives demanding sweeping movements to capture targets, towns, cities and capitols of the enemy as it was in most wars the United States has been involved in. Actually, the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq were both characterized by the aforementioned requirements of "war" but since then (2001 for Afghanistan and 2003 for Iraq) our military basically has been displacing the enemy by occupation of captured ground rather than continuing with the tempo and pace of actual combat. The casualties we have sustained in occupation are truly minuscule compared to the actual combat in the opening days of Afghanistan and Iraq that statistically makes the death of our Soldiers and Marines relatively "acceptable". Really, we should compare the occupation of the Middle East to the American-Indian Wars after the Civil War when we put down the Indian nations in the Western most part of the United States. Occasionally, we suffered death and injury on the battlefield (not to mention Custer's Last Stand) but overall this period of American military operations was more "occupation and pacification" than classical war. Very few soldiers actually participated in this military operation much like today versus the total number soldiers that participated in the earlier Civil War (A million Yankee men were under arms when General Grant took over for the North as Supreme Commander in 1864).
I know that may sound nuanced and insensitive but its critically important to understand where we are today in the ex post facto War On Terror. We have already won the war in Afghanistan and Iraq but we have not yet pacified this part of the world. Pacification can only successfully occur if we as the United States are willing to go on the offensive in Pakistan, Syria and Iran in which these Islamic rebels are operating from with the in explicit blessing of their host nations. This is the truth that cannot be denied. These Islamic rebels operate from bases within these nations and attack our allies in Baghdad and Kabul at will. All the troops in the world cannot change this fact. No amount of defensive posturing no matter how clever we are can change this strategic advantage that now lies with the rebels.
Ironically, the Russians seemed to understand this dynamic after their invasion of Afghanistan in 1978 when after 10 years of occupation they decided to pull out when they could not and would not muster the military and political muscle to invade Pakistan from whence the Mujaheddin so successfully operated, rested and regrouped after any military engagement with the Russians. The Russians never lost a battle with the Islamic rebels during this time however, the strategic advantage was with the rebels and not with the Russians and by 1988 they fully understood this and left Afghanistan to its communist fate - The emergence and consolidation of the Pakistan inspired Taliban.
Will this be America's fate in Afghanistan and Iraq as well? Sadly, it appears to be so. Hence all this discussion of late about the lack of support for the "war" in Afghanistan and Iraq. The American people refused to support the War On Terror when in 2006 the pacifist Democrats swept to power in the American mid-term elections thus handing then President George W. Bush the option of holding what was achieved or pulling out in an orderly fashion. The white anger of 9/11 now has appeared to cool off and it is only a matter of time before we, like the Russians before us in 1988, decide to pull up roots and remove ourselves from the wild wild East.
Our retreat from these lands will only serve to add fuel to the fire of both Islamic terrorist and Islamic terror supporting nation in the Middle East. To what ends will this move the Middle East towards tuning out of the West and extricating itself from the global governance that is fast approaching is anyone's guess. However, I suspect that our retreat will be the catalyst of a recalcitrant anti-Western (not to mention anti-Israel) collective that will range from Mauritania across the North African Arabic plane to Iraq and the Mesopatamian region with Egypt as the base of this new religious totalitarian order. Egypt will be the political base and Saudi Arabia the religious base. If the Moslem Brotherhood has been as influential as everyone says they have been then indeed I believe this will probably be the outcome in the not too distant future.
Terrorists are the pawns of nations in this part of the world with Islam being the fuel that burns the fires of terrorism. Both terrorist and Middle Eastern nation are using each other to achieve their objective(s) and as try as we might the West is unable to break this "cycle of violence" that is the hallmark of the Middle East. The Middle East really is at a breaking point in terms of Islamic culture and really we could say that the entire world is at a breaking point due to the advance of the West in terms of its economic, political, cultural and military clout that it imposes both passively and aggressively upon the nations of the world. The Middle East is feeling the vice being squeezed upon them and there simply is no way out other than through the tried and true method of political violence.
Oil has made the Middle East wealthy beyond its dreams but it also is a curse. Collectively, the Middle East has a GDP equivalent to that of Spain and we know how pathetic Spain is to the world today. The Middle East is the proverbial sick man of the world. Oil has made it possible for the Middle East to exercise some room for movement on the geopolitical plane however time is running out for them. The Middle East nations understand that the world is being sown together in a patchwork of nationalist entities to form a unified global government with the West as the cockpit of this international entity. The terrorist and the Middle East nations see the ever encroaching power of the West hence their predisposition to terrorism to effect an outcome that either will preserve them in the Middle East or allow them to separate altogether (they will still sell oil to us) from this new global hegemony. The income from oil keeps the nations of the Middle East in power and the fanaticism of religion fuels the Islamic terrorist that keeps him going in the face of an obstinate Middle Eastern dictator that runs these nations. Oil and religious fanaticism is a deadly concoction that prevents a stable Middle East from overcoming their "cycle of violence" amongst each other and of course with their neighbors.
Now, Afghanistan is before us. What shall we do and why? The networks and newspapers keep on calling our occupation of this nation as well as Iraq a "war". Just because our military is being utilized to occupy a piece of territory doesn't necessarily mean we are "at war". Yes, we do sustain casualties here and there with Islamic rebels occasionally planting an IED in the pathway of our patrols. Yes, we do get into "gunfights" with them but this is in no way similar to a "war" in which millions of rounds of ammo, millions of gallons of fuel, tons of supplies being shipped to the front and military objectives demanding sweeping movements to capture targets, towns, cities and capitols of the enemy as it was in most wars the United States has been involved in. Actually, the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq were both characterized by the aforementioned requirements of "war" but since then (2001 for Afghanistan and 2003 for Iraq) our military basically has been displacing the enemy by occupation of captured ground rather than continuing with the tempo and pace of actual combat. The casualties we have sustained in occupation are truly minuscule compared to the actual combat in the opening days of Afghanistan and Iraq that statistically makes the death of our Soldiers and Marines relatively "acceptable". Really, we should compare the occupation of the Middle East to the American-Indian Wars after the Civil War when we put down the Indian nations in the Western most part of the United States. Occasionally, we suffered death and injury on the battlefield (not to mention Custer's Last Stand) but overall this period of American military operations was more "occupation and pacification" than classical war. Very few soldiers actually participated in this military operation much like today versus the total number soldiers that participated in the earlier Civil War (A million Yankee men were under arms when General Grant took over for the North as Supreme Commander in 1864).
I know that may sound nuanced and insensitive but its critically important to understand where we are today in the ex post facto War On Terror. We have already won the war in Afghanistan and Iraq but we have not yet pacified this part of the world. Pacification can only successfully occur if we as the United States are willing to go on the offensive in Pakistan, Syria and Iran in which these Islamic rebels are operating from with the in explicit blessing of their host nations. This is the truth that cannot be denied. These Islamic rebels operate from bases within these nations and attack our allies in Baghdad and Kabul at will. All the troops in the world cannot change this fact. No amount of defensive posturing no matter how clever we are can change this strategic advantage that now lies with the rebels.
Ironically, the Russians seemed to understand this dynamic after their invasion of Afghanistan in 1978 when after 10 years of occupation they decided to pull out when they could not and would not muster the military and political muscle to invade Pakistan from whence the Mujaheddin so successfully operated, rested and regrouped after any military engagement with the Russians. The Russians never lost a battle with the Islamic rebels during this time however, the strategic advantage was with the rebels and not with the Russians and by 1988 they fully understood this and left Afghanistan to its communist fate - The emergence and consolidation of the Pakistan inspired Taliban.
Will this be America's fate in Afghanistan and Iraq as well? Sadly, it appears to be so. Hence all this discussion of late about the lack of support for the "war" in Afghanistan and Iraq. The American people refused to support the War On Terror when in 2006 the pacifist Democrats swept to power in the American mid-term elections thus handing then President George W. Bush the option of holding what was achieved or pulling out in an orderly fashion. The white anger of 9/11 now has appeared to cool off and it is only a matter of time before we, like the Russians before us in 1988, decide to pull up roots and remove ourselves from the wild wild East.
Our retreat from these lands will only serve to add fuel to the fire of both Islamic terrorist and Islamic terror supporting nation in the Middle East. To what ends will this move the Middle East towards tuning out of the West and extricating itself from the global governance that is fast approaching is anyone's guess. However, I suspect that our retreat will be the catalyst of a recalcitrant anti-Western (not to mention anti-Israel) collective that will range from Mauritania across the North African Arabic plane to Iraq and the Mesopatamian region with Egypt as the base of this new religious totalitarian order. Egypt will be the political base and Saudi Arabia the religious base. If the Moslem Brotherhood has been as influential as everyone says they have been then indeed I believe this will probably be the outcome in the not too distant future.
posted by Bruce R. McConnell | 10:59 AM
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