X-MARINE

He who studies history shall know the future for all things come full circle.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

Temple of Doom

As the United States and the West maneuver politically and militarily over Iran, we see a better picture of the forces arrayed against us and I have to say, it doesn't look pretty. Iran was the second nation identified in Presiden't Bush's designation of the Axis of Evil and we see now why this nation was not attacked first due to its Russian alliance as well as West European attempts at reaching a political settlement. The United States couldn't simply outright attack Tehran while these european discussions were taking place nor could we countenance such an attack while Iran was overtly allied with Moscow, much like in the days of the Cold War. Hence, our current stalemate or at least a reluctance to sound the Alpha signal for war that clearly we could otherwise win with overwhelming speed and qualitative superiority were it not for Russian political and military interference.

Now, a new event has occured that has become a force mulitplyer of violence and has critically shaped our strategic position in the Middle East: the destruction of the Shiite Al Askari shrine. Why was this mosque destroyed at this time and in this manner? What does its destruction ultimately serve? Iraq has been the faultline between Shia and Sunni division ever since the death of Islam's founder for nearly 1400 years but never has the Al Askari shrine revered by Shia Moslems, as the sight where the alleged last imam went into hiding, been destroyed by the Sunni sect of Islam. It has stood in its place for over 1000 years but now it has been destroyed. What does this portend for Iraq's future? And really, what does this portend for the future of the Middle East?

Does Tehran have anything to do with this? Are they the benefactors of the destruction of this shrine to the last Imam? Perhaps its the Sunni's, knowing they have lost their footing in Iraq by the direct intervention of the United States, were willing to destroy what they no longer could control? All guesses on my part but the larger question must now be entertained as the reprecussions will now reverberate throughout the Middle East.

If the Sunni's were the perpetrators of the destruction of the Al Askari shrine will the Shia counterattack themselves against a revered object of the Sunnis? As such, will their religious counterattack come to serve other purposes as well? It is my contention that the Shia will respond in like manner with the destruction of another Golden Mosque but this time will serve the Persians quest in their desire to wage war with the unbelieving West: the destruction of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem!

The attack on the Shia shrine has raised the ante up quite a bit and indeed propels the War on Terror to a new level that we clearly were trying to avoid. The President and this administration wisely sought to steer the War on Terror away from a "clash of civilizations" and especially from a "religious" war between Christianity and Islam. However, the shrine attack has brought complications that has the potential for history changing effects. Is it possible for Iran to destroy this Mosque and provoke a greater war against Israel by blaming the Jews and America for this calamity thus deflecting the concomitant reactionary response of the Sunni's against "them" instead of Iran thus avoid being on the receiving end of this internecine religious war? A long winded question but the sad answer is yes, they can.

There have been many an opinion as to the nature of suitcase nukes being deployed by Al Qaida or an Islamic state against America, but what would happen if instead they deployed these "nano" nukes against their own people? History shows us that they have no qualms in killing each other to acheive their political aims. What greater way to "kill two birds with one stone" than destroying the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem thus potentially uniting all of Islam against Israel and avenging their own loss of the Shia Al Askari shrine in Samarra, Iraq.

Behind all these plans within plans lies Russia waiting in the shadows. In the end, it is Moscow that benefits the most from these events.

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