Et Tu Pakistani?
I recently excoriated ABC News for exhibiting a knee-jerk reaction in regards to Pakistan's policy in Waziristan, a remote western region on the Pakstani/Afghan border, in allowing someone like say Osama Bin Laden a free pass if the Paks came across him in the field. I felt that ABC was making a mountain out of a mole hill just to cheese President Bush in maintaining an alliance of sorts with Pakistan in the War on Terror. After a fortnight I have come to the conclusion I may have been a bit too hasty.
From Counterterrrorismblog.Org regarding Pakistan -
One of the premier experts in Washington on Pakistan, Alexis Debat of the Nixon Center and ABC News, traveled again to Pakistan last month and gave a briefing yesterday to invitees. Alexis is a daily CTB reader, and we've traded valuable background information and timely intelligence. He met there with numerous government officials and non-governmental personnel, including those in league with the terrorists. His findings and conclusions are extremely troubling, not only for the future of Pakistan but also for the future of a democracy in Afghanistan. It's difficult for me to imagine either country's continuing to serve as an ally with us against Islamic terrorism given the near-permanent Al Qaeda-based network in the Pak western provinces, especially after the recent "peace agreement" between the militants and the Musharraf government.
The reason we may not be able to definatively capture and kill OBL may be directly related to Pakistan's Intelligence Service and/or a Pakistani population slavishly devoted to this international Islamic terrorist. Reporters keep asking about the failure to capture OBL and why we are not in Pakistan like we are in Afghan or Iraq. President Bush's answer to them is always that "Pakistan is a sovereign country". Even if we did capture or kill him, that would not be the "end" of Al Qaida as they and other more notorious groups are still operational in other terror loving countries like Iran, Palestine and Syria.
the blog continues:
● Al Qaeda is not just an ideology or label in Pakistan, but a live organization with deep roots in Pakistani civil society. They've reorganized brilliantly in Waziristan with financial assistance and personnel from outside the country.
● Osama Bin Laden doesn't move often and is well protected. Ayman al-Zawahiri is assumed to operate within a 40 square kilometer area between Kunar in Afghanistan and Bajaur in Pakistan, is personally involved in all operations, and is therefore more vulnerable. OBL and Zawahiri communicate often through couriers, which takes up to 8 weeks and is vulnerable to Pakistani intelligence and law enforcement (top operative al-Libi was caught there thanks to the capture of an Al Qaeda courier). Matiur Rehman, whose leadership role in Al Qaeda was announced in a report by Alexis for ABC News, has been involved in every major Al Qaeda plot in Pakistan since the 9/11 attacks. (My note: Alexis is not convinced that the Pakistanis have him in custody, and ABC News report of Rehman's capture on August 17 was not based on his reporting.)
Is Pakistan harboring or providing cover for America's most wanted man? Their very own A.Q. Kahn, the perveyor of nuclear know-how to anyone interested, has not been handed over to an international body by Prime Minister Mushariff of Pakistan even against the wishes of the United States of America. Has Pakistan painted themselves into corner with no way out? Have they bitten off more than they can chew?
the blog goes on:
● The Al Qaeda support groups in Pakistan and Kashmir (Word files) provide protection, muscle, and logistical support.
Protection: The clerics in Waziristan have overtaken the tribal leaders in authority by acquiring more guns and money, and Al-Zawahiri is protected by the tribes and clerics and married into the local tribe.
Muscle: The clerics recruit from the thousands of madrassas in Pakistan. Alexis heard of considerable sexual abuse in the madrassas, which is then exploited in the recruitment phase. The Musharraf government has made an effort to register the madrassas, but with no impact thus far on the recruitment dynamics. The local Taliban provide sanctuary to Al Qaeda, and other groups have come together in the past year as indicated in the charts. The "peace agreement" protects the local Taliban there, and the stipulation in that agreement that the Taliban turn over foreigners cannot and will not be enforced.
Logistics: Al Qaeda now has links to numerous institutions and political parties in Pakistan, assiduously built over the past two years, which have been exploited to assist Al Qaeda and the local Taliban. Alexis believes that some of those parties are not inherently anti-American might be amenable to discussions with the U.S.. Alexis had no information on the extent of foreign financial support for Al Qaeda in Waziristan or the primary country of origin of the outside funds.
● Musharraf is weaker than ever. He is slowly losing the military, his best ally, as indicated in the killing of Baluch tribal leader Nawab Akbar Bugti on August 26, which Alexis believes was done without Musharraf's orders. Other elites in Pakistan, including lower levels of the ISI (Pakistani intel) are also turning against him and the U.S., for a variety of reasons (more detailed than needed for this post). This also raises concerns over the control of Pakistani nuclear weapons. The timing of the recent North Waziristan "peace agreement" was probably purposeful and further highlights Musharraf's weakness.
Perhaps the global jihad is in fact "global". Or at least "pan-Islamic" encompassing a swath of desert-lands from Morrocco to Thailand and Indonesia. Nevertheless it is a Jihad that is going to have be attacked from a military/diplomatic initiative either now or later. If later, then harder it shall be to overcome.
From Counterterrrorismblog.Org regarding Pakistan -
One of the premier experts in Washington on Pakistan, Alexis Debat of the Nixon Center and ABC News, traveled again to Pakistan last month and gave a briefing yesterday to invitees. Alexis is a daily CTB reader, and we've traded valuable background information and timely intelligence. He met there with numerous government officials and non-governmental personnel, including those in league with the terrorists. His findings and conclusions are extremely troubling, not only for the future of Pakistan but also for the future of a democracy in Afghanistan. It's difficult for me to imagine either country's continuing to serve as an ally with us against Islamic terrorism given the near-permanent Al Qaeda-based network in the Pak western provinces, especially after the recent "peace agreement" between the militants and the Musharraf government.
The reason we may not be able to definatively capture and kill OBL may be directly related to Pakistan's Intelligence Service and/or a Pakistani population slavishly devoted to this international Islamic terrorist. Reporters keep asking about the failure to capture OBL and why we are not in Pakistan like we are in Afghan or Iraq. President Bush's answer to them is always that "Pakistan is a sovereign country". Even if we did capture or kill him, that would not be the "end" of Al Qaida as they and other more notorious groups are still operational in other terror loving countries like Iran, Palestine and Syria.
the blog continues:
● Al Qaeda is not just an ideology or label in Pakistan, but a live organization with deep roots in Pakistani civil society. They've reorganized brilliantly in Waziristan with financial assistance and personnel from outside the country.
● Osama Bin Laden doesn't move often and is well protected. Ayman al-Zawahiri is assumed to operate within a 40 square kilometer area between Kunar in Afghanistan and Bajaur in Pakistan, is personally involved in all operations, and is therefore more vulnerable. OBL and Zawahiri communicate often through couriers, which takes up to 8 weeks and is vulnerable to Pakistani intelligence and law enforcement (top operative al-Libi was caught there thanks to the capture of an Al Qaeda courier). Matiur Rehman, whose leadership role in Al Qaeda was announced in a report by Alexis for ABC News, has been involved in every major Al Qaeda plot in Pakistan since the 9/11 attacks. (My note: Alexis is not convinced that the Pakistanis have him in custody, and ABC News report of Rehman's capture on August 17 was not based on his reporting.)
Is Pakistan harboring or providing cover for America's most wanted man? Their very own A.Q. Kahn, the perveyor of nuclear know-how to anyone interested, has not been handed over to an international body by Prime Minister Mushariff of Pakistan even against the wishes of the United States of America. Has Pakistan painted themselves into corner with no way out? Have they bitten off more than they can chew?
the blog goes on:
● The Al Qaeda support groups in Pakistan and Kashmir (Word files) provide protection, muscle, and logistical support.
Protection: The clerics in Waziristan have overtaken the tribal leaders in authority by acquiring more guns and money, and Al-Zawahiri is protected by the tribes and clerics and married into the local tribe.
Muscle: The clerics recruit from the thousands of madrassas in Pakistan. Alexis heard of considerable sexual abuse in the madrassas, which is then exploited in the recruitment phase. The Musharraf government has made an effort to register the madrassas, but with no impact thus far on the recruitment dynamics. The local Taliban provide sanctuary to Al Qaeda, and other groups have come together in the past year as indicated in the charts. The "peace agreement" protects the local Taliban there, and the stipulation in that agreement that the Taliban turn over foreigners cannot and will not be enforced.
Logistics: Al Qaeda now has links to numerous institutions and political parties in Pakistan, assiduously built over the past two years, which have been exploited to assist Al Qaeda and the local Taliban. Alexis believes that some of those parties are not inherently anti-American might be amenable to discussions with the U.S.. Alexis had no information on the extent of foreign financial support for Al Qaeda in Waziristan or the primary country of origin of the outside funds.
● Musharraf is weaker than ever. He is slowly losing the military, his best ally, as indicated in the killing of Baluch tribal leader Nawab Akbar Bugti on August 26, which Alexis believes was done without Musharraf's orders. Other elites in Pakistan, including lower levels of the ISI (Pakistani intel) are also turning against him and the U.S., for a variety of reasons (more detailed than needed for this post). This also raises concerns over the control of Pakistani nuclear weapons. The timing of the recent North Waziristan "peace agreement" was probably purposeful and further highlights Musharraf's weakness.
Perhaps the global jihad is in fact "global". Or at least "pan-Islamic" encompassing a swath of desert-lands from Morrocco to Thailand and Indonesia. Nevertheless it is a Jihad that is going to have be attacked from a military/diplomatic initiative either now or later. If later, then harder it shall be to overcome.
posted by Bruce R. McConnell | 10:30 AM
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