Jolly Roger
What to do about Iran. Sanctions? Diplomacy? War? These are the things which we ponder as the Iranian leadership plunges the country towards a conflict with the United States. I'm going to go out on a limb and make some predictions. As you may very well know, predicting free-will is very difficult thing to do and even the best intelligence agencies around the world have a pickle of a time trying to figure out what will come next. The best one can do is to sift through hundreds of intelligence intercepts and identify trends that may be forming to determine a certain course of action. I am a single person who simply is interested in foreign policy. Nothing more. Like an oracle, I will attempt to decipher the meaning of my inner gut feelings as to the future in Persia.
Here are my predictions regarding Iran:
1) There will be war.
2) The President of the United States will sound the Alpha Signal commencing military operations with a surprise tactical nuclear strike on Natanz and Isfahan, knocking out Iran's uranium enriching capabilities for the long term and sending a signal to the world that America has the capability and desire to blitz our enemies demonstrating that the doctrine of preemption is alive and well.
3) Military operations conducted by the United States will more resemble the operation in Afghanistan than Iraq by relying primarily on special operators backed by US Air Force tactical bombers and strategic assets such as B-1's, B-2's and B-52's. Perhaps an amphibious assault along Iran's southern shores by a USMC MEF or MEB and/or the use of airborne troops for quickly seizing WMD assets held by Iran. Bushehr will be seized by American Marine forces.
4) Iranians, who detest the regime, will rise up to embrace their American "visitors" and overthrow their government in Tehran. Additional American conventional forces stationed in either Iraq or Afghanistan will force their way to the capital to assist in its liberation.
5) The US Air Force will completely dominate the skies over Iran. The use of drones will play a more significant part than ever before more in reconnaissance but also for tactical strikes as well as they can be equipped with "hellfire" missiles. Lovely.
6) Iran will strike back by mining the straight of Hormuz and with cruise-missile attacks on any number of ships transiting this region. They will also agitate for revolt in Southern Iraq by various armed militia to counter and tie-down American and coalition forces in Iraq. The US Navy may suffer the loss of destroyers/frigates by suicide boats or more conventional missiles.
7) Gas prices in the United States will rise to $5.00 a gallon.
8) Israel will be attacked by terrorist elements from Hezbollah esconced in Lebanon.
9) The Dome of the Rock will be destroyed by an errant Shehab V-2 type missile in a last ditch effort by Iran to stir up the Islamic world against Israel.
10) Terrorist sleeper cells will be activated in the United States as a strategic/political attack against targets such as the Pentagon and other assets not yet hit that may impart some morale boost for Iran.
There may be other American "super" weapons unknown to the public that may be used for the first time in Iran not covered in the above scenarios.
P.S. I could be completely wrong.
Here are my predictions regarding Iran:
1) There will be war.
2) The President of the United States will sound the Alpha Signal commencing military operations with a surprise tactical nuclear strike on Natanz and Isfahan, knocking out Iran's uranium enriching capabilities for the long term and sending a signal to the world that America has the capability and desire to blitz our enemies demonstrating that the doctrine of preemption is alive and well.
3) Military operations conducted by the United States will more resemble the operation in Afghanistan than Iraq by relying primarily on special operators backed by US Air Force tactical bombers and strategic assets such as B-1's, B-2's and B-52's. Perhaps an amphibious assault along Iran's southern shores by a USMC MEF or MEB and/or the use of airborne troops for quickly seizing WMD assets held by Iran. Bushehr will be seized by American Marine forces.
4) Iranians, who detest the regime, will rise up to embrace their American "visitors" and overthrow their government in Tehran. Additional American conventional forces stationed in either Iraq or Afghanistan will force their way to the capital to assist in its liberation.
5) The US Air Force will completely dominate the skies over Iran. The use of drones will play a more significant part than ever before more in reconnaissance but also for tactical strikes as well as they can be equipped with "hellfire" missiles. Lovely.
6) Iran will strike back by mining the straight of Hormuz and with cruise-missile attacks on any number of ships transiting this region. They will also agitate for revolt in Southern Iraq by various armed militia to counter and tie-down American and coalition forces in Iraq. The US Navy may suffer the loss of destroyers/frigates by suicide boats or more conventional missiles.
7) Gas prices in the United States will rise to $5.00 a gallon.
8) Israel will be attacked by terrorist elements from Hezbollah esconced in Lebanon.
9) The Dome of the Rock will be destroyed by an errant Shehab V-2 type missile in a last ditch effort by Iran to stir up the Islamic world against Israel.
10) Terrorist sleeper cells will be activated in the United States as a strategic/political attack against targets such as the Pentagon and other assets not yet hit that may impart some morale boost for Iran.
There may be other American "super" weapons unknown to the public that may be used for the first time in Iran not covered in the above scenarios.
P.S. I could be completely wrong.
posted by Bruce R. McConnell | 10:50 PM
5 Comments:
Good predictions. But why don't US just destroy it nuclear weapon first before asking others to destros theirs? Just a question, and I don't need your written answer anyway... For you and me to think and "analyse".
File under Knowing the Past: Yesterday was the 18th anniversary of Operation Praying Mantis, the U.S. retaliation for the Iranian mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts. Photos and video of the one-day battle are posted at nohigherhonor.com.
Nina,
The reason we have nuclear weapons is well, we are civilized. We are the Overlord of the world by de facto victory over Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan since 1945.
Thus, when an ex-Ottoman colony such as Iran attempts to push the Overlord around, my question to you would be, why shouldn't we destroy it as an object lesson to all the other colonies who think they can run wild without due recourse to our global modus vivendi?
You know, all we Americans want is for you to trade with us. Really quite simple. Keep your nefarious plans in the realm of capitalism and everything will be fine. However, going off the reservation, with delusions of Islamic grandeur only invites a visitation by B-52's and the United States Marine Corps.
Good Day Sir!
Brad,
Thanks for that great link regarding Operation Praying Mantis. Great name for an operation.
I was serving in Cuba at the time of this operation and it has come to me that I did in fact recall this as I was up late one night on duty in the Combat Operations Center at Marine Barracks and heard of the Navy/Marine exploits against the Iranians over armed forces radio....ah memories.
X-Marine I think you may be right with #1, #2 + #3, but number #4 is only something American's might wish for. Unfortunately America struggles to contemplate how disliked and untrusted they are in many parts of the world, so I don't expect to see too much embracing. Not sure about your other predictions, they all get pretty scary from #7 onwards. cheers, walt_D
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